Alicia Marchese was in bed watching TV when a vision came to her: Could the 21-year-old college student actually help pick the next pope?
She spent four hours putting together video clips of her favorite cardinal, Matteo Zuppi, hoping to rally public support around him. She put a Charli XCX song over it with the repeating lyrics, “I’m your number one, I’m your number one.”
Zuppi, like Marchese, is from Italy. He also shares progressive views similar to the late Pope Francis . Plus, the cardinal smiles a lot, she says. “He looks like a sweet, sweet, sweet grandpa to me.”
Suddenly, everyone is a papal expert. Catholics and non-Catholics alike are rallying around their favorite candidates for the world’s most visible religious job as cardinals from around the world gather in Rome. They’re pushing for their contenders on social media and in betting pools , comparing cardinals’ credentials like judges on “American Idol” and assessing their chances like sports pundits during March Madness.
These conclave enthusiasts—and “Conclave” enthusiasts—are aware their posts, fandoms and research deep-dives on candidates are unlikely to influence the selection of the pope , which is the very definition of a closed-door process. But, like fans trying to will the outcome of the Final Four , they’re certainly showing spirit.
There are more armchair pope-election experts than ever in the U.S., thanks to the lingering success of the star-studded 2024 Vatican thriller , which arrived on Amazon’s Prime Video this week. “Conclave” saw a 3,200% increase in viewership on U.S. streaming platforms on Monday and Tuesday, compared with the same days last week, according to data analytics firm Luminate.
Marchese and her friends are expecting drama at the Vatican, like in the Oscar-winning movie. They created a conclave bingo card, imagining what could transpire. “Sex scandal,” one spot says. “ Elon Musk has an opinion,” says another.
How much drama they’ll actually see unfold is to be determined. While the 252 members of the College of Cardinals meet during “General Congregations,” occurring now until the conclave, it’s the smaller meetings between the cardinals that often leak and become media fodder .
“There’s a possibility of theater,” said Philip Shenon, author of “Jesus Wept: Seven Popes and the Battle for the Soul of the Catholic Church.”
“This conclave is really unpredictable,” he added. “There really is no clear front-runner.”
That makes it all the more thrilling for Ali Campbell and his colleagues. The 31-year-old radiographer in Edinburgh, Scotland, created a sweepstakes at work, using OpenAI’s ChatGPT to list the 20 people most likely to succeed Pope Francis.
Each name went on a piece of paper, and players paid £2 to claim a name. When the conclave ends, the winner gets £40, or around $53.
Campbell says his co-workers regularly hold these contests during other big cultural moments like Eurovision , so it made total sense. But he’s been surprised by the amount of research players are putting into the papal pool, given they picked their man at random.
“There’s a lot of people coming up to me at work just saying various things about the cardinal they’ve got,” said Campbell.
Betting sites are also taking wagers on the next pope, with Cardinal Pietro Parolin , the Vatican’s secretary of state, getting the best odds.
Some are picking their favorites based on their views on the future of the church, which under Pope Francis became more global—and divided . Others simply lean toward the man whose name they like best, such as Italian Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa.
Nationality is also a big factor. David Ona took to TikTok to root for Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle. His number one reason: They’re both Filipino.
“It’d be really cool to see somebody from my home country be such an influential figure,” said Ona, a 21-year-old college student in Chapel Hill, N.C., whose parents are both from the Philippines. “That’s not something that we get to see a lot.”
Danni Capalbo, a 28-year-old event planner in Boston, isn’t “super religious” anymore but plans on using her second monitor at work to livestream the conclave. The spectacle makes it one of the few fun, theatrical events that occur in the Catholic Church, she says.
“It’s the Super Bowl of being Catholic,” Capalbo said.
But being Catholic isn’t a prerequisite. Noa Gutterman, a 33-year-old Brooklyn-based vice president of user acquisition for a tech company, read the “Conclave” novel last year, then saw the film with her father, a rabbi. The two are watching the musings and updates of the cardinals “as if it’s a presidential race,” she said.
Like Ona, she wants Cardinal Tagle to win. In the past week, Tagle is the most searched cardinal in the U.S., according to Google.
Gutterman hopes the next pope carries on Francis’ legacy: “I think that would be amazing to see another iteration of that style of leadership.”
Jordan Miller was bummed when she found out Pope Francis had died. Then she had an epiphany: “Oh, my God,” she thought to herself, “we get a real conclave!”
Miller has been obsessed with the movie since it began streaming on Peacock last winter. She’s watched it a dozen times and preaches about it to all her friends. “I essentially became an evangelist for the movie,” said the 26-year-old account manager in Chicago. While she stepped away from organized religion as an adult, “I’ve had a weird crisis of faith where I’m back a little bit,” she said. “They got me.”
She’s now immersed in research of all the cardinals who are up for the papacy. “My Google history right now is the most Catholic it has ever been,” she said.
The “Conclave” to conclave shift has been a boon for PopeCrave. The account, created on X in December, was originally dedicated as a fan charity zine for the film and posted memes about it during awards season. Now, the page posts jokes, news, fan art and projects related to the fictional “Conclave”—and the real one.
One viral post shows Steve Kornacki, NBC’s khaki-wearing election expert, discussing the candidates, and photoshopped wearing a red zucchetto, like those donned by Roman Catholic clergy.
Susan Bin, a 30-year-old artist and PopeCrave co-administrator, says despite the account’s humor, its mission and enthusiasm are sincere. What actually happens to elect a new pope is rooted in mystery, Bin says, so fans must resort to memes.
“It’s a way of dealing with something that we can’t do anything about,” said Bin. “Besides waiting for the smoke, we can meme about it.”
The calm-on-the-outside, chaotic-on-the-inside process of the conclave isn’t unlike an American political convention, says Shenon, the author. The different cardinals will fight it out and establish factions, he adds.
“It seems to be pretty unpredictable in terms of who will be the next pope,” said Shenon, “which makes it exciting in and of itself.”
About 20% of U.S. adults are Catholic, a stable number since 2014, says Pew Research Center. “The church would miss an opportunity if they didn’t let the public share in the excitement of this grand bit of theater,” he said.
Marchese won’t be upset if Zuppi isn’t selected.
“If God doesn’t want Zuppi as pope, I will understand,” she said. She would be happy with any choice—except one. “Don’t be offended please,” she said. “I don’t want the American to win.” Hearing a pope speak Latin with an American accent “would kill me.”
Write to Ann-Marie Alcántara at ann-marie.alcantara@wsj.com and Joseph Pisani at joseph.pisani@wsj.com
